This week, another Canadian agency provided a surprise data release.

Statistics Canada released the revision to its labour force numbers on Jan. 28, showing that in Canada, overall employment increased by 121,300 positions in 2014. This was down from a Jan. 9 report which indicated an employment increase of 183,000.

Statistics Canada indicated the revision was a standard undertaking as adjustments were made to integrate the 2011 Census population counts into the labour force estimates.

From the revised data, we can see that western Canada’s employers added 102,000 positions to payrolls in 2014, contributing 84.1 per cent towards Canada’s employment numbers in 2014. All four western provinces experienced positive employment growth, with Alberta showing the strongest number of positions of any Canadian province (63,100), followed by Ontario (37,700), British Columbia (16,500), Manitoba (14,200) and Saskatchewan (8,200).

 

Revisions to the employment data support the Bank of Canada’s surprise interest rate decrease of last week. The lower numbers suggest the underlying employment picture is not as strong as previously thought and this in part related to an aging population. According to Statistics Canada, there are now more Canadians aged 55 and older, who are less likely to participate in the work force; further, there is a declining participation rate among people aged 55 and older.

On a positive note, the national data indicates an increase in full-time positions and a decline in part-time positions across the country. Of the four western provinces, only Alberta and Manitoba experienced an increase in part-time positions in 2014 of 5.5 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively.

Of note is the 0.7 per cent decline in British Columbia’s labour force in 2014. With plans to develop an LNG industry and expansion of other natural resource industries, British Columbia will need to watch this trend closely over the next few years.

While the 2014 employment numbers for western Canada were positive, we can expect to see a different picture begin to emerge when the 2015 labour force estimates are released. Low oil prices have already resulted in layoffs throughout the oil and gas sector and we can expect to see the impact of those decisions on other industry sectors in the months ahead.

– By Janice Plumstead, Senior Economist