By Roger Gibbins
In the Leader-Post
Dec. 30, 2013
Back in January it looked as if 2013 could be a transformative year for western Canada. Many of the large policy issues confronting the region were coming to a head, and the future of the resource economy seemed up for grabs as we debated market access, environmental sustainability and Aboriginal participation in resource development.
But, as the year draws to a close, the prevailing impression is that of a region becalmed. It is not that the year has been a bad one, it is just that there has been a lot more policy talking than policy walking.
The growing challenge of resource access to American markets was brought into focus by the cross-border dispute over TransCanada’s proposed Keystone XL pipeline. However, although the battle was fully joined by Canadian governments and industry associations north of the border, and environmental opponents both north and south of the border, no resolution was to be had. The decision ultimately rests in the hands of the American president, and in this case “becalmed” may be far too complimentary a description amidst growing concern that the American political system is incapable of handling any issue of substance. Whatever can be punted down the field will be punted, and the Keystone decision is just one of a huge number of footballs.
Potential Asian markets received a great deal of optimistic press in 2013, but there were few concrete developments. Proposed oil pipelines through BC continue to face intense environmental and First Nation opposition, and although optimism continues to surround BC’s future as an LNG exporter, no project has advanced beyond the drawing board. Meanwhile, the inevitable environmental opposition to LNG development is beginning to build.
The more general news on the resource front has been mixed at best. The potash industry has been hit by depressed markets, and BC Hydro’s proposed Site C project is just beginning what could be years of contentious community consultations and environmental assessments. Prospects for new mines are uncertain at best, and any expansion of coal production faces intense urban opposition.
We have seen encouraging dialogue on potential frameworks for First Nation participation in resource projects, but the pressing need for such frameworks has yet to yield formal agreements.
On the climate front, the oil and gas industry is still waiting for new emission regulations from Ottawa, and Christy Clark’s BC government is wrestling with trying to square the potentially explosive growth of the LNG industry with existing GHG reduction targets. This is dilemma is being addressed, at least hypothetically, by the argument that LNG exports will displace coal consumption in Asia, and by stressing that targets are not to be confused with commitments.
In undoubtedly the biggest irony of the year, the modest one step forward by the federal government on the perennial bugbear of Senate reform has become two steps back in the face of the Senate expense scandal, and the manner in which it has been handled by the Prime Minister and PMO. There has been a great deal of Senate sound and fury, almost rivaling that surrounding Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, but no significant reform progress.
In the short term, Prime Minister Harper has passed this particular hot potato to the Supreme Court, and no concrete steps are likely until after the 2015 election, if then. Interestingly, western Canadians and their political leaders were all over the map on this issue, providing no coherent regional voice.
On the good news side, the region is blessed with stable political leadership and relatively strong public finances. NDP Premier Greg Selinger has two more years before the next election, Brad Wall is unassailable in Saskatchewan, Alison Redford has beaten back leadership challenges from within her own party and continues to hold Wildrose at bay, and Christy Clark’s remarkable success in the spring election leaves her unchallenged in BC.
The only major political uncertainty is whether Justin Trudeau can make significant headway in the West. Although the two November by-elections in Manitoba suggest this might be the case, the regional extent of Justin Trudeau’s appeal has yet to be tested.
The wind is sure to start blowing again in 2014, but for now, we just have to wait and see what will happen.
Dr. Roger Gibbins is a Senior Fellow at the Canada West Foundation, which exclusively focuses on policies that shape the quality of life in western Canada. Visit us on-line at www.cwf.ca.