By Carlo Dade
In the Winnipeg Free Press
November 16, 2016
The immediate effect of the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president is not the one most people will think of, but it is the most important. This election changes the assumptions that we have used for decades to understand and respond to our neighbour and largest trading partner.
Canada needs to take a deep breath and fully absorb that the old models for understanding the United States — in other words for figuring out what is going on south of the border and what we should do — have proven to be deeply flawed.
Rushing to respond using old frameworks is a bit like a firefighter rushing into a burning building knowing his equipment failed him the last time and will likely do so again. Much has to be done to reformulate our thinking. For the provinces, changing that framework starts with no longer looking upon the Ottawa-Washington axis as the sole path to advancing and defending its interests in the U.S.
Instead, our best means of defending and advancing our interests in the U.S. is at the state level.
For Manitoba businesses, the rubber of the relationship hits the road in St. Paul, Springfield, Nashville and the other state capitals where Canada’s provinces interact directly and uniquely with their U.S. counterparts.
From softwood lumber to meat-inspection fees, to measures to deal with climate change, the U.S. states are most often the origin of our trade irritants with the Americans. Conversely, the states are also often our best allies in resolving these issues.
State capitals, not Washington, D.C., are the places where we often nip these issues in the bud. We are also able to build alliances and win support that percolates up to Washington in calls from state legislators and other folks back home.
Washington has roughly 160 foreign missions and dozens of international agencies. In the state capitals and meetings of U.S. state legislators, however, Canada is the lone consistent and persistent foreign presence. At meetings of the U.S. Council of State Governments, Manitoba and other provinces, which are members, are treated as equals and peers with their American counterparts. Mexican states are not as active, as well resourced or as professional as Canadian provinces. Canadian provinces largely have this space to themselves.
State-level engagement as a strategy is something that does not have to be rethought in the aftermath of the Trump victory. State governments and executives are largely unchanged. In the 24 states where the traditional GOP controls both the governor and state houses, visits from conservatives such as premiers Brian Pallister or Brad Wall is a potentially even greater asset for making friends and finding influence. In the Democratic-controlled Cascadia corridor, from Washington State to California, the liberal-leaning premiers Christy Clark and Rachel Notley may be more effective.
For Western Canada, working with the states is like heads we win, tails we win.
Working directly with the states does have its limits. Provinces and states do not have treaty power and still must rely on the federal government for control of the borders. But there is still much beyond the border that can and is being done.
From forging agreements to pre-inspection of animal cargo, to harmonizing regulations on transportation, the environment and labour standards and recognition and — to the chagrin of many motorists — recognition of traffic violations, there is much co-operation. Creativity and a willingness to push the boundaries can expand these boundaries further.
This is an opportunity that should not be squandered. While the provinces have done much to build relations with the states, more needs to be invested in personnel, in budgets, in travel and in time of provincial officials.
The biggest investment, and the most important, will be in making the case to the public on the value of provincial/state relations. Travel and hosting meetings are not luxuries; they are necessities. The news media can support this by tempering their impulse to report on government expenses as a scandal. Instead, they should ask whether those investments support vital economic objectives.
Carlo Dade is the director of the Centre for Trade and Investment Policy at the Canada West Foundation. The Canada West Foundation event Beyond the Ballot: The U.S. election’s effect on Manitoba, takes place today at the Winnipeg Art Gallery.