Author: Dr. Roslyn Kunin
The purpose of this report is to identify the economic development issues for the rural areas of the four provinces of Western Canada: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia (BC), with projections from 2010 – 2015, and as feasible to 2020. This report concentrates on medium to long-term realities in the West and in the global economy. Current financial and economic volatility may delay, but will not negate the trends described here which will be important in the rural West over the next decades and beyond.
The four western provinces have a population of 9,772,500 (2006 Census), of which 20%, or 1,880,580, live in the rural areas, and 21%, or 1,930,870, live in medium-sized communities. The majority of the population, 59%, lives in the large urban areas. The population of the West is expected to grow over the next twelve years, increasing from 9.77 million in 2006 to 10.23 million in 2011, to 10.69 million in 2016, and to 11.15 million in 2021.
Aboriginal people are a key sub-group of the population in the rural West, as they live in the rural areas in larger proportions (44%) than the general population, and those tied to their First Nation are building their community in the rural areas. Aboriginal people are also key because as a group they are younger and growing faster than the general population. There are 701,725 Aboriginal people accounting for 7.1% of the population of the four western provinces, and 3.6% of the total population of Canada, and 59.8% of the total Aboriginal population in Canada.
Immigration does and will play an important role in the rural West. Low birth rates across the country mean that Canada is increasingly reliant on immigration to increase and even maintain the population. Immigration is even more vital in rural areas that not only have natural increases below the replacement level, but also have been experiencing out-migration to urban areas.
The four Western provinces are projected to be the strongest economic performers in Canada over the short-term, with strong projections for 2010 – 2015 – 2020. The rural West is dominated by agriculture, oil and gas, mining, and energy, all with strong
national and international growth projections. The increased investments in infrastructure and transportation should result in an increase in extraction, processing, and transportation of goods to regional, national and international markets.
However, the economies in the rural areas of the West are heavily dependent upon natural resources and agricultural commodities, and their ever fluctuating markets. While the provincial economies are growing overall, the resource dependency results in strong fluctuations among communities and regions, with some areas booming and some areas suffering from limited economic opportunities. These fluctuations among regions lead to further discrepancies of age, employment, and income levels, exacerbating regional differences in rural areas.
The population of Manitoba is expected to grow slowly, with the most growth in or near the urban area. The economy of rural Manitoba is well diversified amongst agriculture, mining, petroleum, hydro, pulp & paper, and manufacturing.
The population of Saskatchewan is projected to decrease slightly over the next twelve years, even though it is projected to have the strongest economy in Canada over the short-term. The rural and provincial economy is driven by agriculture, oil and gas, potash and uranium.
The population of Alberta is expected to grow led by its strong economy based upon its large and well developed oil and gas industry. Alberta also has strong agricultural and processing sectors in rural areas.
The population of BC is also expected to grow, and it too has a diversified economy on the rural areas led by forestry, mining, oil and gas, as well as manufacturing and transportation.
Throughout the West a shortage of skilled labour is expected to impact development, particularly in rural areas, which tends to have less of a labour pool from which to draw skilled workers. Environmental, land use and regulatory issues are also expected to impact the natural resource-based economies of the rural West as global markets are becoming more concerned with environmental impacts.
However, the development and use of technology is seen as a way to address concerns of labour and the environment, and to lead to further economic development opportunities.
While the strongest draw for many of the existing residents to rural communities is the lifestyle – which tends to mean a more traditional way of life with a slower pace, less pressure and more predictability than the dynamic urban lifestyle – the draw to the rural areas for new residents is both lifestyle and economic opportunities. The ability to retain people is tied to the community’s ability to provide expected levels of services such as health care, education, social services, retail and convenient transportation options.
Businesses are attracted to rural areas for proximity to the resources, and the availability of inexpensive land with less strenuous zoning and other regulations. More and more, industry is also attracted to affordable and available infrastructure such as water, power, communications and transportation.
While the economies of the rural West are dominated by natural resource extraction, small businesses and entrepreneurship have long been an important component developing and implementing new technologies, as well as providing the support goods and services for the workers, communities, and industries in the rural West.