By Carlo Dade and Shachi Kurl
In the Winnipeg Free Press, Saskatoon Star Phoenix and Vancouver Sun

June 27, 2016

The leaders of North America meet, and Western Canada shrugs.

Given our most important trading relationships will be on the agenda when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sits down Wednesday with U.S. President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto at the North American Leaders Summit in Ottawa, it may be difficult to understand why.

There’s a case to be made Western Canada — through its almost singular focus on pursuing trade with Asia — has by default left the big conversations about trade in North America to those in the boardrooms of Toronto and cabinet tables of Ottawa.

This is worrying because so much is at stake — in fact, nothing less than our most important export market: the United States.

Over the two decades since the North America Free Trade Agreement was signed, hanging onto market share in the U.S. has become much tougher as others vie for a bite of our lunch.

This is happening as Canadians themselves lose faith in NAFTA. The latest Angus Reid Institute public opinion poll shows just one-quarter of Canadians think the deal has been a net benefit to the country.

Then there is the usual U.S. sabre-rattling on protectionism. Beyond the “made-in-America” restrictions that threaten Canadian exports to the U.S., Canada has had to fight off country-of-origin labelling and agricultural inspection fees and now faces the spectre of renewed restrictions on the import of softwood lumber to the U.S.

Canada has had success in combating the first three of these issues.

Notably, however, Mexico played a role in each of these victories because it has greater economic and political power to influence the U.S. than Canada does.

Our disputes with the U.S. may be seen here as bilateral, but in fact, there is a third interest. Mexico, for example, shares Western Canada’s distaste for country-of-origin labelling. (Canada and Mexico launched a successful challenge at the World Trade Organization, claiming the U.S. labelling rules were discriminatory to their livestock industries.)

Though not everyone in the U.S. is a fan of Mexico, its ability to influence should not be underestimated.

With more Mexicans in the U.S. than there are Canadians in Canada, it cannot be ignored. Canada, on the other hand, is easy to like but also easy to ignore. Mexico, with its 52 consulates in the U.S. versus Canada’s dozen, may better be seen as a useful ally for Canada on economic issues.

But rather than focusing resources and attention on Mexico as a critical path to safeguarding interests in the U.S., Western Canada has mostly looked one way: across the Pacific to China, South Korea, India, and other Asian countries.

These countries are unquestionably important to Western Canada. Yet, Australia’s protracted history in reaching a trade agreement with China suggests it could take a decade before a trade deal between Canada and China could be readied.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership could also expedite the path to Asia if the U.S. ratifies it, but on this, there are few guarantees. In the near term, Canada has just one trade agreement across the Pacific.

In the interim, is Western Canada doing enough to safeguard its bread and butter in North America? Ideally, premiers of the four western provinces, along with their counterparts from Quebec and Ontario, should be spending more time shoring up and growing business interests in Mexico and ensuring Canada and Mexico take a more united approach in ongoing trade irritants with the U.S. that impact the West.

That may be asking too much. Politically, the road is uphill: the same Angus Reid poll shows nearly half of western Canadians see Mexico as a risky venture for their businesses.

And the last western premier to visit Mexico on business rather than vacation was Manitoba’s Gary Doer — two leaders ago.

But majorities in every western province also agree Canada should work toward build stronger relationships with Mexico.

The question is whether western provincial governments are listening.

Carlo Dade is director of the Centre for Trade and Investment Policy at the Canada West Foundation. Shachi Kurl is executive director of the Angus Reid Institute.