Retail sales overall continue an upward path across the country, according to Statistics Canada.
The latest figures show, however, that as consumers enjoyed the lower price of gasoline, gasoline stations experienced lower sales at the cash register.
Alberta and Saskatchewan are the exceptions to the national upward trend as retail sales in both provinces declined in February 2016 and show no signs of rebounding any time soon.
Retail sales in Alberta decreased for the fifth time in six months, down 0.4% in February 2016. According to Statistics Canada, higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers in Alberta were offset by lower sales at gasoline stations.
Since February 2015, retail sales in Alberta have declined by 1.8%, continuing a trend from the previous twelve-month period when retail sales declined 3.9%. Alberta’s retail sales are expected to drop further over the remaining months of 2016, mirroring the ongoing economic uncertainty in the province. As consumers adjust to the changed economic environment and with slightly higher oil prices anticipated in 2017, retail sales could increase above 2% in 2017.
In Saskatchewan, retail sales have stagnated over the past 12 months, increasing by just 0.3% since February 2015. The recent monthly decline of 0.4% subtracted almost a third of the gains made in January. Rising unemployment rates and low economic growth are contributing to the decline in sales. Retail sales are not expected to rise above 2% this year although expectations of a higher price for oil could see 2017 retail sales increase to around 4%.
On the West Coast, British Columbia continues to experience an upward trajectory of retail sales, rising 1% for the third time in four months and almost 6% from February 2015. British Columbia’s robust economy and the low Canadian dollar that is attractive to tourists bodes well for continued retail sales growth for the remainder of the year. Retail sales in 2016 and 2017 are forecast to grow by more than 4% in each year.
Retail sales in Manitoba, meanwhile, struggled to show any increase in February, hardly rising 0.1% after increasing 3.8% in January 2016. Of all four western provinces, Manitoba has enjoyed the greatest increase in retail sales since February 2015 of 8.4%. In spite of the modest results in February, retails sales are forecast to increase by 4% this year, continuing that trend in 2017. The opening of Winnipeg’s Outlet Collection, a premium fashion outlet mall in 2017, will become a shopping destination for shoppers from nearby provinces and states, consolidating the growth of Manitoba’s retail sales.
– Janice Plumstead is a senior economist
