Last week, Statistics Canada released November’s GDP numbers for Canada indicating the Canadian economy had contracted by 0.2 per cent.

This further confirms the grim news related to the drop in oil prices. Weak demand and low commodity prices are responsible for the continuing decline in growth in the energy, mining and manufacturing sectors.

With market analysts from JPMorgan Chase & Counhelpfully exclaiming, “There will be blood,” largely in reference to Alberta’s oil sector but also to the Canadian economy generally, western Canadians are only too aware of the consequences of economic volatility.

It’s true that a closer look at the GDP numbers suggests there are very few sectors – particularly export-related sectors – which escaped a decline in growth. Exports of goods and services are a major component of Canada’s GDP, accounting for approximately 30 per cent of the national total. This is in contrast to the United States, where goods and services account for only 14 per cent of GDP, a much smaller percentage. In western Canada, our energy, mining and manufacturing sectors are important contributors to Canada’s overall exports and consequently national GDP.

It’s no secret that the share of exports from western Canada’s provinces contribute significantly to Canada’s total exports. The most recent statistics show that all four provinces contributed about 99.4 per cent towards export sales in oil and gas extraction in 2013, with Alberta and Saskatchewan predominating.  A large share of mining exports can also be attributed to western Canada, specifically 100 per cent of export sales in coal and at least 96 per cent of potash sales. Although the share of manufacturing exports from western Canada are more modest, these exports are generally industry specific and tied to energy and mining. And, as illustrated by the November GDP release, western Canada’s economy is taking a hit.

But there is some good news hidden within the numbers.

To identify the sectors that did experience positive GDP growth over the last 12 months and could be linked to western Canada’s economy, we compared western Canada’s top export sectors in 2013 and the sectors reported as experiencing consecutive GDP growth in September, October and November 2014 using the national data. In addition, the sectors also had to show positive year-over-year growth.

Only five sectors across the four provinces made the cut.

Three sectors were related to crop production and food manufacturing: animal production, grain and oilseed milling, and seafood product preparation and packaging. Two were related to general manufacturing: other general-purpose machinery manufacturing (such as pumps and compressors) and motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing.

In the table below, the colour boxes indicate the province contributing to overall growth in that sector nationally.

Granted, activity in these sectors isn’t likely to come close to making up for the loss of activity in the energy, mining and overall manufacturing sectors, but they do demonstrate some divergence in economic activity.

It’s perhaps not a thick silver lining, but it at least has a sheen of brightness.

– By Janice Plumstead, Senior Economist