Tech and Innovation
Issue #1 | April 2026
By: Margi Pandya, Stephany Laverty
Canada’s digital landscape is evolving rapidly, driven by a combination of technological advancements, strategic investments and government support.
Tech and Innovation, a new monthly series from the Canada West Foundation, will track, analyze and explain the policies and projects shaping Canada’s digital infrastructure.
From financial technology and artificial intelligence to the digital tools and systems we rely on every day, this series will help Canadians understand what’s new, what’s next and why it matters.
Prediction Markets: Gambling or something more?
Prediction markets have become a constant presence in news, entertainment and sports, and all just in the past year. From CNN and the Golden Globes to Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are now key partners of some of the largest corporations and events in the U.S.
But users aren’t just making predictions about American questions, they’re also putting their money behind the outcomes of Canadian events. Some of those include whether Alberta will vote to secede from Canada, what the unemployment rate will be this month and what the Bank of Canada decision in June will be, to name a few.
Prediction market progress has moved a bit slower in Canada, but a recent announcement could change that. Finance aficionados are abuzz due to recent regulatory approval that could help Wealthsimple enter the prediction market space.
Wealthsimple can now offer event contracts (also known as futures or forecast, binary options). But what are event contracts, and how do they relate to prediction markets?
What are prediction markets and event contracts?
Prediction markets are platforms that let people trade products based on the probability of whether specific events will happen. These products, called event contracts, are a type of regulated prediction market product that features simple yes-or-no outcomes with fixed payouts, and are listed on regulated stock exchanges. Event contracts can focus on a range of topics, from economic data releases to geopolitical developments.
The industry has grown quickly. Annual revenue in late 2025 was around US$2 billion and analysts at Citizens Financial Group predicted that it could surpass US$10 billion by 2030. That growth hasn’t come without controversy, U.S. lawmakers and regulators are actively debating whether these products are closer to gambling than investing, and there are growing concerns about the potential for insider trading. Republican and Democrat senators have worked together to introduce bipartisan legislation to prevent event contracts from being issues for casino-style and sports games.
How do event contracts work?
Event contracts are essentially a contract that pays the owner a particular amount, based on the probability at the time of purchase and how much they bought, and it pays zero if the event doesn’t occur.
A typical contract poses a yes-or-no question, such as, “Will gas prices in Canada drop below $1.50/litre before summer?” Prices fluctuate based on what traders think will happen. If an event is considered likely to occur, the “yes” side of the contract becomes more expensive, and the “no” side is less expensive. If a yes contract is trading at 30 cents, that usually implies a 30 per cent chance of the event occurring.
To increase their gains, traders buy multiple contracts. For instance, if a trader buys 1,000 contracts for yes positions at 30 cents each, and the prediction is correct, then the trader would earn $1 per contract, and make a return of $1,000 on an initial investment of $300. But if the prediction is wrong, they get nothing and would lose their $300.
How Canada regulates prediction markets
Canada’s investment industry, which includes prediction markets, is overseen by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), a national body formed in 2023 with the merger of the Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) and the Mutual Fund Dealers Association of Canada (MFDA). CIRO monitors investment dealers, mutual fund dealers and trading activity across the country’s debt and equity markets.
Securities regulation in Canada is a provincial responsibility, so each province runs its own securities commission. These 13 commissions work together under an umbrella group called the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA), which sets the overall direction. CIRO then carries out that mandate on the ground, operating under formal Recognition Orders from the CSA and subject to its regulatory oversight.
How does this compare to the U.S.?
In the U.S., a single federal agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has the authority to approve and oversee prediction market platforms nationwide. Canada’s system is more fragmented: the CSA sets broad policy, CIRO enforces it nationally, but each province ultimately controls which firms can operate within its borders. That layered structure makes it harder for new platforms to get off the ground in Canada.
A cautious approach
Canada has taken a cautious stance on event contracts. In 2017, the CSA banned event contracts due to widespread fraud and investor harm. More recently, in 2025, Ontario’s regulator moved against Polymarket, a U.S-based prediction platform, after it had been operating in the province for three years without approval. However, Polymarket is still accessible in other provinces.
Two firms have received the green light so far. Interactive Brokers Canada was first, and its prediction market offering is already live, with contracts traded on a U.S.-based exchange called ForecastEx LLC. Wealthsimple recently became the second. Both are only allowed to offer contracts tied to economic indicators, financial markets and climate trends, and not sports or elections, which are the most popular categories on U.S. platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. However, Wealthsimple has not launched any products yet.
A homegrown contender is also pushing ahead: the Toronto Prediction Exchange, launched in December 2025, says it will re-incorporate in British Columbia and relaunch as the Vancouver Prediction Exchange in the coming weeks after months of consultation with Ontario’s securities regulator failed to produce a clear pathway to approval.
Where’s the line between investing and gambling?
Both investing and gambling involve putting money at risk based on an uncertain outcome. The distinction people often reach for is that investing is grounded in research and probability, while gambling is driven by chance and odds set by a house. But prediction markets blur that line deliberately.
Canada faces a policy choice between restricting prediction markets on elections and sports events or eliminating them altogether. Whether this policy choice makes them a legitimate financial tool or a socially acceptable form of gambling may come down less to math than to ethics. It won’t be settled by regulators alone. It will be shaped by those who use these markets, what they trade on and whether the outcomes prove useful or harmful over time.
Where are prediction markets headed in Canada?
Prediction markets are no longer lacking broader public acceptance. They’ve grown into a multi-billion-dollar industry, and Canada is now taking its first deliberate steps into the space, slowly and cautiously.
This issue of Tech and Innovation was written by Margi Pandya and Stephany Laverty. If you have any developments you’d like to see featured or topics that you think should be covered, please send them to .