Author: Dr. Roger Gibbins
Provincial elections are usually of great interest to provincial residents, but understandably of more limited interest to those living outside the province. However, Tuesday’s election in British Columbia is of wider interest for the light it sheds on the broader political scene in Canada.
Although the re-election of an incumbent government is an intrinsically less interesting news story than the election of a new government and new premier, a number of important themes emerged from the BC election results
Premier Gordon Campbell’s Liberal government was the first in Canada to go to the polls since the full onslaught of the recession. Campbell did not duck the recession, but instead asserted that he was the best choice to lead British Columbians through these challenging times. He made economic management the cornerstone of his election campaign, arguing that his New Democratic challenger, Carole James, lacked the experience and ability to manage the province during tough economic times.
Voters responded to the Premier’s argument by rewarding the Liberals with a solid majority government, and the first “threepeat” in 26 years. Even in good economic times, this would have been an impressive accomplishment.
The bottom line is that almost nothing changed from the 2005 election outcome apart from the addition of six seats to the provincial legislature, three of which went to the Liberals and three to the New Democrats. The distribution of the popular vote remained unchanged, and the potential Green party threat to the partisan status quo remained just that, a potential and increasingly remote threat. Despite BC’s well-deserved reputation as Canada’s greenest province, the leader of the Green Party, Jane Sterk, finished third in her own riding with only 17% of the vote.
As the recession continues to unfold, there has been speculation that tough economic times may shake the very foundations of the Canadian political system. In BC, however, the electorate was barely stirred, much less shaken. Carole James nicely summed up the election outcome: “Clearly the economy was a strong concern for people, and they were looking at not changing horses in a tough time.”
But, does Campbell’s success have implications for upcoming elections elsewhere in the country? While it is risky to speculate, there may be some parallels between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and a provincial premier often described as aloof and not excessively people-friendly, criticized (at least until recently) for governing from the right, and running successfully as an effective economic manager.
One thing is clear: it is risky in the extreme to extrapolate partisan results in British Columbia to the national stage. BC parties have at best a loose connection to their national counterparts, particularly because there is no significant Conservative party in the province. (The provincial Conservatives, not to be confused with the federal Conservative party, won only 2.1% of the vote.) If there is a lesson for national parties, it may be that the electorate’s appetite for change should not be over-estimated. To paraphrase Carole James, changing horses in mid-economic stream may have little appeal.